Two events took place within VicenzaOro, organized by Club degli Orafi Italia in collaboration with Intesa Sanpaolo, aimed at exploring the competitive context of the Italian goldsmithing supply chain, starting from the macroeconomic scenario, moving through sector performance, and reaching the distribution phase. The two events were moderated by Laura Biason, General Manager of
Club degli Orafi Italia, and were dedicated to analyzing sector trends both through official statistics and through the expectations of industry players collected in the tenth economic survey conducted with the involvement of Italian goldsmithing companies. The in-depth analyses were presented by Daniela Corsini, Senior Economist responsible for commodity research at the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo, who provided an interpretation of the macroeconomic scenario and its potential impact on precious metals prices, followed by Sara Giusti, Economist at the Research Department of Intesa Sanpaolo, who presented data on the Italian goldsmithing sector, also highlighting the main prospects and challenges companies will have to face.
Additionally, during the second event, an analysis was shared on the structure and drivers guiding the retail trade segment, along with the outcomes of a sociological analysis of the state of Italian retail. These assessments were further enriched and completed by the results of the sentiment analysis of entrepreneurs in the sector, commented on by Augusto Ungarelli, Delegate of the Research Center of Club degli Orafi Italia and Past President of Lombardi – Vendorafa and Club degli Orafi Italia, followed by the contribution of Luca Benvenuti, CFO of Unoaerre Industries SpA and CEO of Chimet SpA. Saturday’s session instead featured the presentation of the results of the retail research by Claudio de’ Nobili, Head of Marketing and Distribution at Maurizio de’ Nobili srl, and the commentary of the President of Federpreziosi Confcommercio and CEO of Gioielleria San Marco, Stefano Andreis.
Precious metals in the Trump era: the comeback of “hard assets”
The central issue for the sector in the current context concerns the trend in commodity prices: both in 2025 and in the first weeks of trading in 2026, gold and silver recorded new price highs. Several factors are driving these trends: expectations of a more expansionary U.S. monetary policy, also linked to the upcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair; strong demand for precious metals from financial investors, both seeking hedging instruments and chasing a positive market trend; and heightened geopolitical risks following U.S. intervention in Venezuela, popular uprisings in Iran, and the intensification of attacks on energy infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia. Given the current scenario, precious metals prices are likely to continue rising in the first quarter, before consolidating at lower levels in the following months. The assumptions underlying the scenario presented for gold estimate an average price of USD 4,600 per ounce in the early months of the year and an average price of USD 4,275 for the whole of 2026. Silver, platinum, and palladium are expected to follow similar dynamics to gold, also influenced by the same speculative forces.
Performance and outlook of the Italian goldsmithing sector
After the positive results of recent years, during the first ten months of 2025, the turnover index in the jewelry and costume jewelry sector also turned negative, recording a decline of 5.1%. Over the same period, production experienced a sharper decrease, equal to 12.8%. The gap between these indicators continues to widen; net of the effect of gold prices, this also signals a partly natural deceleration following the peak reached in previous years. This trend unfolds within an international context marked by a decline in global demand for gold jewelry, which in the first nine months of 2025 stood at 1,095 tonnes, down by more than 240 tonnes compared to the same period in 2024 (-18.2%), influenced by the sharp rise in gold prices. The contraction in demand is visible across all major markets, with drops exceeding -25% in India and China, which together account for more than half of global demand.
After the record level reached in 2024, the Italian goldsmithing sector in international markets faced the “normalization” of exports to Turkey. In the January–September period, Italian exports of gold jewelry amounted to €8.1 billion, with a decline of -16.9% in value and -29.4% in volume; net of Turkey’s contribution, the January September 2025 period would have recorded a slight increase in value (+3.6%) and a more contained decline in volume (-19.4%). Among the various destination markets, despite a sharp contraction (-52.4%), Turkey remains the leading destination for exports, with a 2025 share of 12% in volume and 21% in value. Other destinations of note include the United Arab Emirates, which show growth of 13.7%, and Switzerland, which, thanks to a 20.2% surge, represents the second-largest market in 2025. Conversely, the most significant decline in exports concerns the United States: in the first nine months of 2025, exports to this country amounted to €664 million, registering a decrease of €140 million compared to 2024 (-17%). Territorial data, available for goldsmithing and costume jewelry, show growth for the Valenza district (19%) and Vicenza (6%), against a sharp decline for Arezzo (-32%), more closely linked to the Turkish market, which had led the district’s export value to double in 2024. Considering district trends net of Turkey’s contribution, the total of the three provinces would turn positive (from -16% to +8%), with a more significant effect for the Tuscan district, which would show a substantial stabilization of exports (-1%). Overall, in the January–September period, the three districts recorded exports of €7.2 billion, with a decline of €1.3 billion mainly attributable to lower exports to Turkey.
Reading the economic cycle through companies’ expectations
The tenth edition of the survey on companies in the Italian goldsmithing sector offers an initial overview of prospects for 2026, made possible by the broad involvement of participating companies, which ensures good representation of the entire supply chain. In terms of turnover, one company out of five declared expectations of increased revenue compared to 2025, with a more positive outlook among larger companies, where the share rises to 36%. These indications must be contextualized within a sector characterized by strong revenue growth in recent years; therefore, even a reading of stability takes on greater significance. A further element supporting the sector’s competitiveness is the high propensity to invest: 30% of companies indicated an increase in investments compared to the previous year, with similar percentages among medium-large firms and smaller enterprises. This highlights how companies have identified the importance of supporting their activities at a particularly complex time that requires greater dynamism and responsiveness on multiple fronts, such as internationalization processes, innovation, and sustainability. Not by chance, the main drivers of investment decisions are linked to the evolution of domestic demand (48%), foreign demand (32%), and the strengthening of brand image (31%).
The main concerns relate to the level and trend of raw material costs (62%, up from 52% in the June 2025 edition), followed by the deterioration of domestic demand, indicated by more than half of the sample (51%). The issue of U.S. tariffs was cited by 17% of companies (rising to 35% among manufacturing companies); in this regard, companies affected by this critical issue identify the search for new customers in other markets (indicated by 30% of companies active in the U.S. market) as a potential response, once again confirming the sector’s high resilience in the face of contextual pressures.
Goldsmithing sector: characteristics and outlook of the domestic italian market
In such a volatile and complex international context, it becomes increasingly important to view the sector as a single integrated system, combining production and distribution: within the Italian goldsmithing supply chain, which employs around 76,000 people, half are engaged in trade. These are still relatively small-scale operations, especially in comparison with Europe: in Italy, the average company size is 2.8 employees, compared with an EU-27 average of 3.5 employees per company. The retail sector is significantly influenced by transformations affecting the purchasing process, as well as by evolving demand, which is also impacted by recent changes in precious goods prices.
Among luxury goods, the share of purchases generated by high-spending consumers is gaining increasing importance; according to Altagamma estimates, this group accounts for about half of total sector purchases. With regard to the Italian market, there is increasing concentration of wealth and growing polarization, while internationally the share of the population with high net worth grew by around 3% in 2024. One factor contributing to this type of demand is the tourism sector: in Italy, in 2025, a slight increase in total presences was recorded (+2.1% in the first eleven months), driven by stability in domestic demand and a 4.1% growth in international arrivals. Italian goldsmithing retail today faces decisive challenges, including rising raw material costs, international competitive pressure, and the need to reposition offerings by enhancing quality, service, and new demand flows.
The two events confirmed the resilience of the Italian goldsmithing system. Despite navigating turbulent waters, with volatile gold prices, unstable geopolitics, a fragmented North American market, and polarized domestic demand, the sector maintains dynamism and strategic awareness. The challenge for 2026 remains clear: to combine the protection of Italy’s manufacturing heritage with innovation and sustainability, diversify destination markets, and consolidate an integrated supply chain in which production and distribution operate in synergy. Success will depend on companies’ ability to transform volatility into opportunities for competitive repositioning.